Investment Rating - The report rates the environmental protection industry as "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The new round of debt resolution policies is expected to alleviate local government debt pressure and optimize cash flow for enterprises, particularly in the environmental protection sector [3][7] - The environmental protection industry has been significantly impacted by accounts receivable, with over 13.1% of accounts receivable being overdue for more than three years as of 2023, and an average collection period of 190 days [3][11] - High-quality operational assets are anticipated to see both performance and valuation recovery, as stock prices have not fully reflected the actual operating conditions of companies [3][4] Summary by Sections Section 1: Debt Resolution Efforts - The "6+4+2" plan for resolving local hidden debts is expected to ease the current debt pressure on local governments and promote economic development [3][9] - The environmental protection industry has a high proportion of accounts receivable, with the ratio of accounts receivable to total assets at 14.6%, significantly above the industry average [11][16] Section 2: Valuation Recovery of Quality Operational Assets - From 2018 to 2024, the net profit of the waste incineration sector is projected to increase by 90.1%, while the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decline by 47.1% [3][4] - The water industry is also expected to see a net profit increase of 46.8% during the same period, with a PE decline of 35% [3][4] Section 3: Market Reforms and Growth Potential - The government payment scale is substantial, and debt resolution is likely to optimize cash flow for operational enterprises [4][9] - The water price reform is ongoing, and companies with high operational efficiency in water services are expected to benefit [4][9] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the water and waste incineration sectors as they exhibit stable profit growth and improving cash flow, despite stock prices not reflecting their actual performance [4][30] - Companies such as Xingrong Environment, Hongcheng Environment, and Hanlan Environment are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4][30]
公用环保行业:化债政策发力,优质运营类资产或迎业绩估值双修复
Xinda Securities·2025-01-13 08:23