煤炭：煤价延续反弹，估值有望修复

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "stronger than the market" [6] Core Viewpoints - Coal prices are experiencing a rebound due to reduced production and improved heating demand, leading to a more optimistic outlook for coal stocks [4][5] - The coal supply is tightening due to strict capacity controls under carbon neutrality policies and increasing mining difficulties, particularly in eastern regions [4] - The demand for coal remains resilient, supported by continuous growth in electricity generation [4] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The coal index fell by 5.17% this week, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 4.04 percentage points [14] - Year-to-date, the coal index has decreased by 7.43%, while the broader index has dropped by 5.14% [14] 2. Thermal Coal - As of January 10, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 768 CNY/ton, up 1 CNY/ton (0.1%) week-on-week [3][27] - The operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia is 81.5%, down 0.6 percentage points week-on-week [3][36] - Methanol and urea production rates are at 88.0% and 78.6%, respectively, indicating stable industrial activity [3][42] 3. Coking Coal - The price of coking coal at Jingtang Port remains at 1520 CNY/ton, unchanged week-on-week [4][59] - The average operating rate of coking plants is 77.8%, reflecting a slight decrease [4][71] - The price of metallurgical coke has decreased to 1600 CNY/ton, down 50 CNY/ton (3.0%) [4][68] 4. Supply and Demand - The daily coal consumption of six major power plants is 86.3 million tons, down 2.1% week-on-week [38] - Coal inventories at these plants have increased to 1375.4 million tons, up 1.4% week-on-week [38] - The average available days of coal at these plants is 15.9 days, reflecting a 3.9% increase week-on-week [38] 5. Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with strong resource endowments and stable performance, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [5] - Consider companies benefiting from coal-electricity integration, like Xinji Energy and Shaanxi Energy [5] - Look for companies with production growth potential and high coal price elasticity, such as Shanxi Coal International and Yanzhou Coal Mining [5]