公用事业行业跟踪周报:实施电力系统调节能力优化专项行动,核电运营商24年电量稳定增长加速投运
Soochow Securities·2025-01-13 10:23

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the utility sector [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the optimization of power system regulation capabilities and the acceleration of building a new power system, with a focus on increasing the average annual new renewable energy consumption capacity by 200 million kilowatts from 2025 to 2027, and ensuring a renewable energy utilization rate of no less than 90% [5][4] - Nuclear power operators are expected to see stable growth in electricity generation in 2024, with China Nuclear Power's projected generation of approximately 195.4 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [5][4] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW utility index fell by 3.10% during the week of January 6 to January 10, 2025, with various segments such as hydropower, nuclear power, and thermal power showing declines [13][14] 2. Power Sector Tracking 2.1 Electricity Consumption - Total electricity consumption from January to November 2024 reached 897 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, with the tertiary industry and residential consumption growing at higher rates of 10.4% and 11.6% respectively [18][19] 2.2 Power Generation - Cumulative power generation from January to November 2024 was 857 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, with hydropower and wind power showing significant growth rates of 11.2% and 27.8% respectively [27][28] 2.3 Electricity Prices - The average grid purchase price in January 2025 was 405 yuan/MWh, down 2% year-on-year and 1% month-on-month [36] 2.4 Thermal Power - As of January 10, 2025, the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 768 yuan/ton, down 16.34% year-on-year but up 1 yuan from the previous week [44] 2.5 Hydropower - The water level at the Three Gorges Reservoir was 168.60 meters as of January 10, 2025, higher than the levels in 2023 and 2024, with inflow and outflow rates increasing by 27% and 15% respectively [51][57] 3. Investment Recommendations - Recommendations include focusing on hydropower companies like Changjiang Electric Power, thermal power companies such as Anhui Energy, and nuclear power companies like China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [5]

公用事业行业跟踪周报:实施电力系统调节能力优化专项行动,核电运营商24年电量稳定增长加速投运 - Reportify