汽车行业事件点评报告：2025年以旧换新政策出台，看好补贴托举重卡需求向上

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the automotive industry [2] Core Views - The 2025 policy on vehicle replacement and subsidies is expected to boost demand for heavy-duty trucks [1] - The subsidy scope has been expanded to include National IV and below emission standard commercial vehicles [3] - The policy is expected to drive a 15% to 17.8% increase in heavy-duty truck sales in 2025, potentially adding 14-16 thousand units [5] - New energy heavy-duty trucks are expected to benefit due to differentiated subsidies and reduced costs from battery material price drops [5] Subsidy Details - Subsidies for early retirement of old commercial diesel trucks range from 10 to 45 thousand yuan per vehicle [5] - Subsidies for new National VI diesel trucks range from 25 to 65 thousand yuan per vehicle [5] - Subsidies for new energy trucks range from 35 to 95 thousand yuan per vehicle [5] - The central government will cover 85%, 90%, and 95% of the subsidies in eastern, central, and western regions respectively [5] Market Impact - The policy covers a large base of National IV heavy-duty trucks, with over 800 thousand units in operation as of August 2024 [5] - National III heavy-duty trucks, with around 440 thousand units in operation as of July 2024, are also included in the subsidy scope [5] - The extended application window and high vehicle activity are expected to drive replacement demand [5] Focus Companies - Key companies to watch include China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (000951 SZ), Weichai Power (000338 SZ), and FAW Jiefang (000800 SZ) [7] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for these companies show growth from 2023 to 2026 [7]