轻工制造2025年度策略报告：布局低位顺周期，重视稀缺成长

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the light industry manufacturing sector is "Positive" [2]. Core Viewpoints - The current phase of the A-share market leans towards policy, growth, and thematic styles, with low valuation strategies expected to dominate in the coming year. The dividend strategy is anticipated to remain effective, and the valuation center for growth is expected to rise. The allocation direction for the light industry sector includes: 1) low-position cyclical stocks, with a preference for home furnishings over paper manufacturing; 2) scarce growth and consumer stocks with market share increases; 3) companies with strong global resource allocation capabilities; 4) stable dividend assets [2][30]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishings - The pressure from the real estate sector is weakening, and the industry is undergoing restructuring, with the "old-for-new" policy driving recovery. The real estate cycle is bottoming out, with attention on the recovery of the second-hand housing market and increased real estate policies. The industry is expected to remain in an adjustment period from 2025 to 2026, with stabilization anticipated in 2027. The channel diversification and integration of the industry chain are evident, with leading companies actively transforming channels and refining their operations. With the implementation of national subsidies, leading companies are expected to benefit from overall industry growth, price corrections, and improved market structure [2][4][30]. Paper Manufacturing - The sector is at the bottom of the cycle, with resource scarcity becoming a norm. Global wood chip supply is tightening, and demand is expected to rise due to downstream pulp production. The supply-demand mismatch in pulp is anticipated for 2024, while 2025 may see stabilization in demand and limited new pulp production capacity, leading to a balanced supply-demand situation and moderate price increases. The short-term competitive landscape for finished paper is improving, with prices expected to rebound moderately. The leading companies are expected to continue expanding their competitive advantages through integrated operations [2][4][30]. Consumer Goods - The focus is on scarce growth and consumer stocks with increasing market shares. Traditional consumption is expected to stabilize and recover, with structural changes leading to a rise in self-indulgent consumption. The demand for emotional consumption, smart products, and health-related items is growing rapidly. Companies in sectors such as sanitary napkins, toothpaste, pet food, and infant care are expected to gain market share through quality products, detailed channel management, and precise marketing [2][4][30]. Exports - Export performance is expected to remain positive, with a robust global supply chain reshaping. The overseas demand is anticipated to stabilize, and companies with strong global supply chain layouts and brand presence are expected to see their valuations rise. Notable companies with significant overseas layouts include Yongyi Co., Jiangxin Home, and others [2][4][30]. Packaging - The metal packaging sector is undergoing consolidation, with companies like Yutong Technology and Yongxin Co. showing stable dividends. The industry is expected to benefit from increased coverage of the "old-for-new" policy, with companies like Yutong Technology and Yongxin Co. anticipated to see steady growth in their businesses [2][4][30]. New Tobacco Products - The policy outlook for new tobacco products is positive, with accelerated product iterations benefiting core suppliers. Leading tobacco companies are expanding their product matrices and accelerating technological advancements, which are expected to contribute to future growth [2][4][30].