食品饮料行业周报：头部酒企稳中求进，春节动销有序推进

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [61]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 3.46% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.33 percentage points, ranking 29th among 31 first-level sectors [11]. - The report highlights that major liquor companies are focusing on stabilizing supply and demand, with an emphasis on quality and price balance for 2025. The market is expected to see a gradual recovery in demand, particularly during the upcoming Spring Festival [4][11]. - The beer sector is anticipated to see marginal improvements in demand, with a focus on Qingdao Beer as a key player. The report suggests that the beer industry is undergoing a high-end transformation [4][11]. - The snack segment is experiencing rapid growth due to the diversification of sales channels, with expectations for strong sales during the Spring Festival [4][11]. - The dairy sector is benefiting from favorable policies and an improving supply-demand balance, with a recommendation to focus on companies that are upgrading their product structures [4][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Secondary Market Performance - The food and beverage sector's performance last week was a decline of 3.46%, with soft drinks showing a positive increase of 5.96% [11]. - Top-performing stocks included Qinghai Spring (+13.22%), Dongpeng Beverage (+12.40%), and others, while the worst performers included Jialong Co. (-22.86%) and Lianhua Health (-20.39%) [11]. 2. Major Consumer Goods and Raw Material Prices - Liquor prices showed slight fluctuations, with the price of Moutai increasing slightly to 2,220 yuan for scattered bottles, while the price for the original box remained stable at 2,240 yuan [23]. - Beer production in November reached 1.695 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, while wine production saw a significant decline of 33.3% [28]. - Dairy prices as of January 3, 2025, indicated a slight increase in milk and yogurt prices, while fresh milk prices showed a year-on-year decrease of 14.80% [32]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report notes a 1% decline in the German brewing industry, with expectations for 2024 to mirror 2023's performance [57]. - China has become the third-largest beer supplier to Russia, with a 60% increase in exports to 29,800 tons in the first ten months of 2024 [57]. 4. Core Company Dynamics - Beimei announced a new employee stock ownership plan aiming to raise up to 25 million yuan [58]. - Jinhui Wine's major shareholder has increased its stake in the company, acquiring 50,200 shares for approximately 905,200 yuan [58].