电新行业锂电板块2025年度策略：周期复苏，量价齐升

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electric power equipment industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The industry is experiencing a cyclical recovery with simultaneous increases in both volume and price [1] - New technologies such as solid-state batteries and sodium batteries are emerging, each with promising prospects [4] - Supply and demand are tight, with leading companies maintaining high market shares [5] - Prices have been declining for two consecutive years and are now at a bottom level [5] - The investment outlook for 2025 is positive, driven by improving downstream demand and a lag in supply release [5] Summary by Sections Volume: Supply and Demand Tightness - Global lithium battery shipments are expected to reach approximately 1,926 GWh in 2025, with a growth rate of 25% [10] - The projected global shipments for power batteries, energy storage batteries, and consumer batteries in 2025 are 1,494 GWh, 520 GWh, and 110 GWh respectively [12][18] - The top ten companies accounted for 90% of the power battery installation volume from January to October 2024 [87] Price: Declining Prices at Bottom Levels - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has dropped to 76,000 yuan/ton as of December 27, 2024 [94] - The price of battery cells has decreased from 0.95 yuan/Wh at the end of January 2023 to 0.38 yuan/Wh by the end of June 2024 [5][106] Materials: Price Trends - The overall trend for materials in 2024 shows an increase in volume but a decrease in price [5] - For example, the production of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) increased from 99,000 tons in January 2024 to 284,000 tons in December 2024, while the price fell from 43,000 yuan/ton to 33,000 yuan/ton [5] New Technologies: Diverse Prospects - Various new technologies are being developed, including solid-state batteries and sodium batteries, which are expected to have significant market potential [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies across various segments, including CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and others [5] - It also highlights solid-state battery companies such as Guansheng Co. and Sanxiang New Materials as potential investment opportunities [5]