工程机械行业深度：行业企稳改善，“国际化+电动化”带动发展

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the engineering machinery industry [1] Core Views - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing stabilization and improvement, driven by "internationalization and electrification" [5] - The industry is expected to see an upward turning point due to strong demand from national large-scale equipment updates and enhanced product competitiveness [9] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The engineering machinery sector has shown strong performance, with a year-to-date increase of 20.4% as of December 26, 2024, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the mechanical equipment index by 4.2 percentage points and 12.5 percentage points, respectively [18] - The sector's valuation has been recovering, with a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 19.8, slightly down by 1.6% from the beginning of the year, indicating room for further recovery [22][24] 2. Engineering Machinery Market Conditions - The demand for engineering machinery is primarily driven by infrastructure investment, with a 9.4% year-on-year increase in infrastructure construction investment from January to November 2024 [25] - The mining sector has also shown robust growth, with fixed asset investment in mining up by 10.3% year-on-year during the same period [25] 3. Key Products Performance - Excavator sales are expected to rebound, with domestic sales reaching 91,000 units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, while exports are projected to decline by 5.7% [36] - Loader sales have also increased, with a total of 99,000 units sold in 2024, marking a 5.2% year-on-year growth, and electric loader sales skyrocketing by 188.3% [38] - Electric forklift sales have surged, with 855,000 units sold from January to November 2024, reflecting a 22.1% increase [45] 4. Export Trade and Challenges - The total import and export value of engineering machinery products reached $50.19 billion from January to November 2024, with exports amounting to $47.82 billion, a 7.2% increase year-on-year [50] - The industry is transitioning from a rapid growth phase to a stable development phase, with export growth slowing down but still supported by demand from key markets like Russia and Brazil [9] 5. Competitive Landscape - The global engineering machinery market is stabilizing, with China's leading companies showing strong performance, as evidenced by 13 Chinese companies making it to the global top 50 engineering machinery firms list in 2024 [10] - The concentration of the market is increasing, with the top three companies holding a market share of 33.3% [10] 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on cyclical opportunities within the engineering machinery sector, particularly companies like SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Zoomlion, which are leading the transition towards greener and smarter machinery [9]