12月美国非农数据点评：周期性行业部分好转，制造业持续收缩

Employment and Labor Market - The U.S. non-farm employment increased by 256,000 in December, exceeding the expected 160,000 and the previous value of 227,000[2] - The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, slightly better than the expected 4.2%[2] - The labor participation rate was stable at 62.5%, while the employment rate rose to 60%[4] Sector Performance - Demand in the labor market showed a slight rebound, with the ratio of job vacancies to total non-farm employment at 100.58% in November, similar to pre-pandemic levels[4] - Non-cyclical sectors like healthcare and government, which account for 26% of non-farm employment, saw a slight increase in job vacancies[4] - The manufacturing sector continued to decline, losing 13,000 jobs in December, primarily in durable goods manufacturing[5] Wage Trends - Weekly wages grew by 3.5% year-on-year, while hourly wages also saw a 3.8% increase, indicating a decline in wage growth but still above inflation levels[5] Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The report maintains a view that the Federal Reserve's policy path will be more hawkish than indicated in the dot plot, with expectations of fewer than two rate cuts in 2025[5] - The market's concerns regarding interest rate cuts have diminished significantly following the December non-farm data[5] Market Conditions - The ten-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to remain capped between 4.75% and 5%, with potential peaks in January and February[7] - The S&P 500 is currently 29% above its long-term trend, indicating a bubble-like condition in the stock market[9]