宏观深度报告：转口贸易和企业出海——关税压力下我国出口如何突围

Group 1: Export Diversification and Trade Shifts - Since 2018, China's export diversification has accelerated, with the share of the top five export countries decreasing from 45.0% in 2018 to 36.1% in 2023[9] - Exports to the US, Hong Kong, and Japan have decreased by 4.4%, 4.0%, and 1.3% respectively, while shares to ASEAN, Russia, and Latin America have increased by 2.7%, 1.4%, and 1.3%[12] - The shift in export destinations reflects a strategic response to tariff policies, with significant increases in trade with Mexico and Latin America post-2020[17] Group 2: Outbound Investment Trends - As of 2023, China's outbound direct investment growth rate reached 11.4%, recovering from previous declines, indicating an acceleration in overseas expansion[25] - The manufacturing sector accounts for over 50% of China's outbound direct investment flow, with automotive manufacturing alone representing a stock of $72.06 billion, or 25.4% of total manufacturing investment[28] - Private enterprises now account for 54.7% of overseas business income among listed companies, up 7.8 percentage points since 2018, highlighting their growing role in international markets[4] Group 3: Cross-Border E-commerce Growth - In the first half of 2024, China's cross-border e-commerce exports reached approximately 979.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%, significantly outpacing the overall export growth of 6.8%[5] - The share of cross-border e-commerce in total goods trade exports rose from 3.7% in 2018 to 8.1% in the first half of 2024, indicating substantial growth potential[5] - Major support policies for cross-border e-commerce have been implemented, enhancing logistics and operational frameworks to facilitate international trade[5]