【宏观周报】国内12月通胀保持低位，美国12月就业超市场预期

Domestic Inflation and Economic Indicators - In December 2024, China's consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year and remained flat month-on-month, indicating weak inflationary pressure[3] - The core CPI increased by 0.4% year-on-year, suggesting slight improvement in underlying inflation trends[3] - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) stood at 50.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, while the non-manufacturing PMI was at 52.2%, up by 2.2 percentage points[5] Monetary Policy and Economic Growth - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is considering increasing the intensity of monetary policy adjustments, including potential cuts in reserve requirement ratios (RRR) and interest rates[4] - The State Council plans to support "two new" and "two heavy" projects in 2025, with an additional project list expected to be released soon, aiming to boost economic activity[4] - The total social financing in December 2024 was reported at 23,262 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.8%[14] U.S. Employment and Economic Outlook - In December 2024, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 256,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the expected 165,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%[6] - The job growth was primarily driven by the healthcare sector, which added 46,000 jobs, and the leisure and hospitality sector, which added 43,000 jobs[6] - Following the strong employment data, market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have diminished, with the next anticipated cut now pushed to October 2025[6] Global Economic Context - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2024, but future cuts may be less aggressive than previously anticipated, with projections indicating only two cuts in the next two years[7] - The U.S. economy shows signs of resilience, with retail sales in December increasing by 3.8% year-on-year, reflecting consumer spending strength[12]