宏观周报：非农数据不妨多观察几个月

Economic Indicators - CPI growth rate in December was only 0.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from November, marking a four-month decline[7] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose for three consecutive months, reaching 0.4% in December[7] Real Estate Market - New home sales in first and third-tier cities are higher than in 2024, but second-tier cities hit a seasonal low[11] - Despite the weakness in second-tier cities, the overall real estate market is not expected to perform worse than in 2024, with a forecast of reduced drag in 2025[12] Bond Market - Recent regulatory measures have led to significant adjustments in the bond market, with short-term bonds experiencing larger declines[16] - The central bank's suspension of government bond purchases may lead to increased expectations for reserve requirement ratio cuts in 2025[16] U.S. Labor Market - December's non-farm payrolls added 256,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the expected 160,000[18] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, below the anticipated 4.2%[18] Wage Growth - Average weekly wage growth remains stable, but the Employment Cost Index (ECI) and Atlanta Fed wage growth index are both trending downward, indicating potential pressure on wage growth[18]