宏观周报：美国12月CPI料升至短期高点，强美元行情1月难见拐点

Inflation and Economic Indicators - December CPI in the U.S. is expected to rise to +2.9% year-on-year, influenced by a low base effect and persistent inflationary pressures[2] - The Federal Reserve's Inflation Nowcasting model predicts a month-on-month CPI increase of +0.38% and a core CPI increase of +0.27%[2] - Bloomberg's analyst survey anticipates a month-on-month CPI increase of +0.3% and a core CPI increase of +0.2%[2] Employment and Economic Growth - December non-farm payrolls increased by 256,000, significantly exceeding the expected 165,000, while the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%[4] - The ISM Services PMI for December recorded at 54.1, above the expected 53.5, indicating strong service sector activity[4] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model revised the Q4 GDP growth forecast from +2.45% to +2.73% following strong employment data[4] Market Reactions and Trends - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.79%, up 16 basis points for the week, reflecting stronger economic and inflation expectations[3] - The strong economic data has led to a delay in interest rate cuts, with the market narrative shifting towards "strong economy → tight monetary policy → strong dollar" for January[3] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices fell by -1.94% and -2.34% respectively, as rising interest rates negatively impacted stock valuations[3]