宏观量化经济指数周报：如何补充央行暂停买债的流动性缺口

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.47%, down 0.04 percentage points from last week, while the demand index remains flat at 49.91%[4] - The monthly ECI supply index decreased by 0.07 percentage points from December, while the demand index increased by 0.03 percentage points from November[5] - The ECI investment index is at 50.04%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the consumption index is at 49.47%, down 0.03 percentage points[4] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The ELI index is at -1.48%, down 0.31 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight liquidity contraction in the economy[9] - The central bank has paused net purchases of government bonds, which may lead to the use of other tools to stabilize liquidity[12] - A total of 995 billion yuan in MLF is set to mature on January 15, raising concerns about liquidity management in the market[12] Sector Performance - Industrial production shows a seasonal decline in operating rates ahead of the Spring Festival, with the automotive tire operating rates at 62.16% and 79.02% for full and semi-steel tires, respectively[13] - Passenger car retail sales have decreased, with an average daily sales of 103,351 units, down 16,090 units year-on-year[18] - Real estate sales in major cities have also seen a seasonal decline, with a transaction area of 175.15 million square meters, down 34.33% week-on-week[24] Inflation and Prices - The average wholesale price of pork is at 22.73 yuan/kg, up 0.34 yuan/kg from last week, while the price of 28 monitored vegetables is at 5.16 yuan/kg, up slightly[34] - Brent crude oil futures settled at $77.24 per barrel, up $1.87 from the previous week, indicating a slight increase in international commodity prices[34] Risks and Outlook - There is a risk of short-term "export grabbing" phenomena and the potential for policy measures to fall short of market expectations[46] - The sustainability of improvements in the real estate sector remains to be observed[46]