美国就业数据点评（2024.12）：美国就业强势振翅，全球风暴何时来袭？

Employment Data Insights - In December 2024, the U.S. added 256,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding market expectations and marking a nine-month high[1] - The labor participation rate remained steady at 62.5%, indicating stable labor supply towards the end of Biden's term[1] - The unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1%, reflecting a tightening labor market[1] Wage and Inflation Trends - Average hourly wages in December showed a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 3.9%, still the second-highest level in nine months[1] - The potential for a wage inflation spiral is increasing, which could lead to higher inflation rates[1] Sector Performance - The service sector was the primary driver of job growth, with significant contributions from retail, transportation, and professional services[1] - Manufacturing and mining sectors experienced job losses of 13,000 and 3,000 respectively, indicating weakness in these areas[1] Economic Policy Implications - The combination of high fiscal deficits and tight labor markets may lead to sustained high consumer demand in the U.S.[1] - The upcoming policies under Trump's second term could further tighten labor supply and increase trade barriers, impacting inflation and employment dynamics[1] Global Market Effects - The strong U.S. employment data may compress the potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, pushing the dollar index close to 110[1] - The ripple effects of U.S. monetary policy may lead to tighter monetary conditions in major non-U.S. economies, including China[1]