2024年12月美国非农数据点评：强非农后，紧货币与强美元还能持续多久？

Employment Data - In December, the U.S. added 256,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding expectations of 165,000, with previous months' figures revised down by 8,000[1] - The unemployment rate decreased from 4.2% to 4.1%, indicating a strong labor market[1] - The employment structure showed no significant flaws, with various measures of job growth (CES, CPS) all indicating increases[1] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.28% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3%, and year-on-year growth was 3.93%, slightly below the forecast of 4.0%[1] - The slowdown in wage growth is attributed to weaknesses in the automotive and IT sectors, which may impact market perceptions of inflation[1] Market Reactions - Following the strong employment data, traders pushed back the first rate cut expectation to September, leading to a surge in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index[1] - The market's reaction to the employment data was mixed, with equities declining and gold prices rebounding, indicating differing views among traders[1] Economic Outlook - Short-term expectations suggest that the upcoming CPI data and Trump's inauguration speech will reinforce the narrative of strong economy → tight monetary policy → strong dollar[1] - Mid-term forecasts indicate potential weakness in non-farm payrolls and CPI from February to May, which could lead to a reversal of the strong dollar narrative[1] Risks and Uncertainties - Long-term implications of Trump's policy mix suggest greater uncertainty and upward risks for U.S. inflation[1] - Potential risks include market volatility, significant deviations in economic data from expectations, and geopolitical tensions[1]