美国非农就业数据点评：谁更中意非农？特朗普or美联储

Employment Data Insights - In December, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 256,000, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 160,000[1] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, down 0.14 percentage points, indicating a robust labor market[2] - The JOLTS job openings for November were reported at 8.098 million, well above expectations, with the job openings rate rising to 4.8%[2] Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, the U.S. dollar rose to 109.9, and the 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.79%[1] - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in Q1 dropped below 30%[2] Sector Performance - The December job growth was supported by strong performances in education, healthcare, and government sectors, which added 113,000 jobs[2] - Notable growth was also observed in the service sector, including retail, leisure, hospitality, professional, and business services, as well as finance and information sectors[2] Implications for Policy - The strong employment data raises the bar for the Federal Reserve to consider future rate cuts, necessitating more consistent declines in inflation[3] - Trump's administration may face pressure to maintain employment levels, especially with manufacturing jobs declining by 87,000 in 2024[4]