今年有望再次演绎春节行情

Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a repeat of the historical Spring Festival market trend, with A-shares expected to perform well post-festival [4][10][14] - A-shares typically show a decline in the 28 days leading up to the Spring Festival, with an average drop of -0.95%, while the post-festival period sees an average increase of +4.28% [11][12][14] - The report highlights a shift in market dynamics, with small-cap stocks expected to outperform large-cap stocks after the Spring Festival [6][12][16] Market Trends - Historical data indicates that A-shares tend to rebound in the week leading up to the Spring Festival, with small-cap stocks showing early signs of outperformance [12][14] - The report notes that the current market is in a policy vacuum, with potential impacts from the upcoming U.S. presidential inauguration and its implications for U.S.-China relations [4][14] - The report suggests that the market may maintain a volatile stance leading up to the Spring Festival, with a clearer focus on domestic growth policies post-festival [14][22] Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of a stable stock market, with a focus on moderately loose monetary policy and the potential for dividend-paying sectors to outperform [7][24] - It identifies the promotion of consumption and domestic demand as key tasks for 2025, suggesting that sectors related to domestic demand and self-sufficiency will be central to mid-term market strategies [7][24] - The report anticipates significant fiscal support for consumption upgrades, with a projected allocation of 81 billion yuan for consumer goods replacement policies [20][22] Sector Analysis - The military industry is highlighted as having faced challenges in recent quarters but is expected to see a recovery as market sentiment improves [23] - The report indicates that the military sector may experience volatility due to high financing balances, suggesting a potential shift towards blue-chip stocks as new capital flows into the market [23][24] - The report also notes that the "Two New" policies will expand fiscal support significantly, which is expected to stimulate domestic demand and economic recovery [20][22]