定量策略报告：美指美债加速冲顶后的布局机会

Market Overview - Risk asset volatility has increased at the beginning of the year, primarily due to the impact of overseas liquidity fluctuations and the "strong interest rate + strong dollar" combination [1] - Commodities have generally strengthened, reflecting concerns about reflation expectations [1] - The US December non-farm payrolls significantly exceeded expectations, further suppressing the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations, with the next rate cut now expected in September, below the Fed's projected two cuts for the year [1] - The Federal Reserve's net liquidity has rebounded from $5.89 trillion to $6.05 trillion at the start of the year, with the TGA account decreasing by $1013.61 billion, expected to continue declining as the debt ceiling window approaches, leading to increased net liquidity [1] Domestic Market Performance - The domestic market has continued to adjust after the December Politburo meeting, with the ChiNext Index leading the decline at -2.02% [2] - The financing balance, a key driver of the market, has accelerated its decline to 1816.7 billion yuan, returning to the central level, while broad-based ETFs saw a net purchase of 21.5 billion yuan, mainly concentrated in the CSI 300 index products [2] - Foreign capital inflows have been pressured by the strong dollar, but the rate of pressure has begun to slow [2] - The December China Manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, down from 50.3% but still above the boom-bust line, indicating no need for excessive pessimism after the release of production, consumption, and import-export data [2] Asset and Sector Recommendations - In terms of major asset classes, the end of year-end tight liquidity and the debt ceiling game have improved liquidity, presenting trading opportunities for US bonds after peaking, with US stocks expected to recover and gold recommended for continued allocation [3] - High-dividend and cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, banks, construction, and transportation are recommended [5] - Small-cap themes such as AI computing power, large models, and robotics are highlighted [5] - Consumer policy-related sectors like textiles, home appliances, and food and beverage are also recommended [5] Sector and Theme Adjustments - The report suggests adding machinery and military industries while removing food and beverage and aquaculture from the focus list [9] - Key sectors include banks, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, coal, power, military, pharmaceuticals, power equipment, new energy, and machinery [9] - High-interest trading themes for the week include rare earths, robotics, chips, 5G, new energy vehicles, and smart home [29] ETF Recommendations - The top ETF recommendations for the week are the Media ETF (512980) and the Information Security ETF (159613) [10] Style and Broad Market Views - The report advocates for a combination of dividend and growth styles [7] - Growth styles are expected to outperform in the secondary surge, with a recommendation to maintain a dividend and debt reduction base, focusing on thematic tech stocks like semiconductors [8]