策略周观点：交易量变化≠增量资金变化

Core Insights - Since September 2024, market trading volume has significantly increased, but the scale of incremental funds is only consistent with the index's rise, not indicative of a strong influx of new capital [2][11][30] - Historical data shows that during the early stages of bull markets, trading volume often rebounds more than the inflow of incremental funds, as seen in Q1 2019 [10][18] - During consolidation periods, traditional channels for fund inflow may cool down, but new channels can continue to see stable inflows, as evidenced in past market cycles [23][27] Group 1: Trading Volume and Incremental Funds - Trading volume and turnover rates have reached levels comparable to the 2015 bull market, yet the actual incremental funds are only aligned with the index's performance [11][14] - In the Ningbo region, from September to November 2024, the trading fund balance has increased but at a rate similar to the index's rise, returning to levels close to May 2023 [11][15] - The phenomenon of trading volume rebounding more than incremental fund inflows is common in the early stages of bull markets, as illustrated by the data from Q1 2019 [18][20] Group 2: Market Consolidation and Fund Inflows - During consolidation phases, while traditional funding channels may decline, new funding sources can still show resilience, as seen in the periods from Q2 2019 to Q1 2020 and Q2 2013 to Q2 2014 [23][24] - The current market adjustment is viewed as a normal consolidation following the initial rise of the bull market, with expectations for ETF shares to potentially increase during this period [10][27] - The upcoming period before the Spring Festival is anticipated to present a second buying opportunity, supported by seasonal trends and economic data [30][31] Group 3: Investment Strategy and Recommendations - Short-term strategy suggests focusing on financials and real estate, which are expected to benefit from policy changes, followed by upstream cyclical sectors [31][32] - The report emphasizes that the market's current volatility may lead to a shift in investment styles, with potential underperformance of small-cap strategies as the market transitions to a new upward phase [31][32] - The analysis indicates that the market may continue to experience fluctuations, with a significant recovery likely requiring a combined effort from both retail and institutional investors [30][31]