A股策略周报：混乱中的秩序

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a pullback under weak realities, with structural overheating still present. The internal demand consumption and physical consumption-related sectors have seen significant declines, particularly in coal, electricity, real estate, and oil and petrochemicals. The market sentiment is pessimistic regarding real demand, contrasting with the differentiated pricing seen in the first half of 2024 [1][10][12] - The current market is characterized by a high proportion of stocks below the levels seen on September 24, 2024, particularly in dividend-paying physical assets. This indicates a convergence of market expectations towards weaker realities, leading to a pessimistic pricing of stocks [10][12][16] Group 2 - There are emerging positive signals in the real economy, such as a rebound in high-frequency economic activity data in late December, reaching the highest levels since 2020. The operating hours of excavators have also shown significant year-on-year growth, surpassing seasonal highs [2][20][21] - The focus should be on monitoring the recovery of physical workload, which could lead to a transition from "stable prices and declining volumes" to "stable prices and rising volumes." Key indicators include the issuance of government bonds and the progress of major projects [22][26][29] Group 3 - Recent commodity price rebounds are attributed to favorable supply and demand factors. The oil market is impacted by Western sanctions on Russia, while domestic inventory depletion in copper and aluminum is driving preemptive restocking by U.S. manufacturers [30][35][36] - The safety attributes of commodities are becoming increasingly important in the current geopolitical and tariff uncertainty, suggesting that commodities may be undervalued compared to financial assets [36][39] Group 4 - In response to market volatility, a defensive strategy is recommended, focusing on resource assets such as oil, aluminum, and copper, which possess safety attributes. Additionally, leading companies in manufacturing, particularly in machinery and basic chemicals, are recommended due to improving profit distribution relationships [4][40][41] - Low-valuation state-owned enterprises, such as banks and railways, are expected to continue stabilizing the market, while opportunities in service consumption sectors like aviation and logistics are also highlighted [4][40][41]