短期可能见底，聚焦科技

Investment Strategy Overview - The report suggests that the A-share market may be nearing a bottom due to a combination of positive policies, limited external risks, and sufficient adjustments in sentiment indicators and leading sectors [4][18][21]. Market Adjustment Signals - Key signals for market adjustments during a bull market include the emergence of positive policies or events, sufficient adjustments in sentiment indicators, and leading sectors experiencing adequate corrections [8][11][18]. - Historical data shows that since 2018, there have been nine periods of short-term adjustments in bull markets, with adjustments lasting between 13 to 74 trading days and the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing declines of 2% to 14% [8][9]. Economic Recovery and Profit Trends - The report indicates a continuation of weak economic recovery, with high-frequency data showing improvements in real estate sales across first, second, and third-tier cities, with year-on-year increases of 96.8%, 47.4%, and 35.2% respectively [21][22]. - Industrial profits are also showing signs of recovery, with a reported increase in profit growth from -13.6% in Q3 to -8.7% in October-November, suggesting a potential for further profit recovery in the A-share market [22][24]. Liquidity and Policy Environment - The liquidity environment is expected to remain accommodative, with potential for further policy support from the central government, including a pre-allocated budget of 81 billion yuan for economic stimulus [19][26]. - The report highlights that external risks, such as potential tariffs from the U.S., are currently manageable and may not significantly impact domestic markets due to ongoing improvements in the domestic supply chain [19][21]. Sector Allocation Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on technology and certain consumer sectors for investment, as these are expected to outperform in the near term [21][22]. - Specific sectors highlighted for potential growth include AI-related technology, media, computing, and consumer services, which are anticipated to benefit from policy support and improving fundamentals [21][22][24].