山西证券：研究早观点-20250114

Market Trends - The domestic market indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,160.76, down 0.25%, and the Shenzhen Component Index remaining unchanged at 9,796.18 [2]. Industry Comments - The basic chemical industry is facing potential supply risks due to increased U.S. sanctions, which may exacerbate shipping market tightness and significantly raise short-term oil supply risks [3][4]. - The agricultural sector continues to see stable profitability in pig prices, with average prices for external three-way crossbred pigs in key provinces showing a decline [8]. - The coal industry is optimistic about demand growth in the first quarter, with coal prices stabilizing as supply and demand balance out [9][10]. - The solar energy sector is experiencing price increases in the upstream supply chain, driven by regulatory changes and market dynamics [21][22]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-dividend state-owned enterprises in the context of declining 10-year treasury yields [5]. - The fluorochemical industry is recommended due to supply constraints and expected continued improvement in market conditions [5]. - The oil and gas sector is highlighted for potential investment opportunities due to significant short-term supply risks [5]. - Specific companies recommended include Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Sinochem Fertilizer, China National Petroleum, and others [5]. Company Performance - Fast Retailing Co. reported a 10.4% year-on-year increase in revenue for FY2025 Q1, with operating profit rising by 7.4% [14][15]. - The performance of UNIQLO in Japan showed a revenue increase of 9.0%, while overseas operations saw a 13.7% rise, although challenges in the Chinese market were noted [14][15][17]. - The overall retail environment in China is showing signs of recovery, with specific categories like home appliances performing well [18]. Price Tracking - The price of multi-crystalline silicon remains stable at 39.0 CNY/kg, while the price of silicon wafers has seen slight increases due to supply-demand dynamics [22][28]. - The average price for M10 solar cells has increased by 9.1% to 0.3 CNY/W, indicating a positive trend in the solar energy component market [23][28].