中原证券：晨会聚焦-20250114

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in China's total goods trade in 2024, reaching 43.85 trillion yuan, with exports surpassing 25 trillion yuan for the first time, marking a 7.1% year-on-year growth [4][9] - The People's Bank of China has raised the macro-prudential adjustment parameter for cross-border financing from 1.5 to 1.75, effective January 13, 2025, indicating a tightening of financial regulations [4][9] - The report emphasizes the government's push for high-quality development in the data annotation industry, with seven cities designated to establish data annotation bases [5][9] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,160.76, down 0.25%, while the Shenzhen Component Index remained unchanged at 9,796.18 [3] - The report notes a mixed performance across various indices, with the ChiNext Index down 0.47% and the CSI 300 Index down 0.27% [3] Industry Analysis - The chemical industry faced challenges in December 2024, with the CITIC basic chemical index dropping 5.89%, ranking 25th among 30 sectors [15] - The acrylic acid industry chain showed strong performance, with notable price increases in products like acrylic acid and petroleum coke [15][16] - The software industry experienced a slight decline in growth, with revenue for January to November 2024 reaching 12.29 trillion yuan, a 10.7% increase, down from 13.4% in 2023 [17][18] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as resource products, polyester filament, and new chemical materials for investment opportunities in the chemical industry [16] - In the AI sector, the report recommends monitoring investments in AI computing chips, copper connections, PCB, server power supplies, and liquid cooling systems due to the rapid growth of the AI ecosystem [23] - The telecommunications sector is advised for investment, particularly in light of new subsidies for digital products, which are expected to stimulate demand in the consumer electronics market [31] Market Trends - The report indicates a recovery in the smartphone market, with domestic smartphone shipments increasing by 4.9% year-on-year in 2024 [29] - The film industry is facing a significant decline, with box office revenues dropping by 22.13% in 2024, highlighting a need for improved content quality and audience engagement strategies [35][36]