东吴证券：晨会纪要-20250114

Macro Strategy - The report highlights a significant change in China's export structure since the imposition of tariffs during the Trump administration, with a noticeable decline in exports to the US, Hong Kong, and Japan, while ASEAN, Russia, and Latin America have filled the gap [1][16] - The shift in China's re-export trade is attributed to the adjustment of tariff policies, with Mexico and Latin America emerging as major re-export markets [1][16] Economic Outlook - The US economy is projected to maintain strong growth, with December's CPI expected to rise to 2.9%, leading to delayed rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve [2][18] - The report indicates that the strong employment market and consumer inflation expectations are driving the upward revision of growth and inflation forecasts for the US [2][18] Industry Insights - The report discusses the performance of various sectors, noting that the small-cap index has underperformed compared to the broader market, with significant declines in sectors such as retail and telecommunications [4] - The report also mentions the strong performance of precious metals, with gold and silver prices rising significantly [5] Company Analysis - China General Nuclear Power Corporation is expected to see a 6.1% year-on-year increase in electricity generation in 2024, with a maintained "buy" rating based on profit forecasts of 11.8 billion, 12.3 billion, and 13.3 billion yuan for 2024-2026 [10] - Aorite's integrated transformation in the pharmaceutical sector is showing early success, with revenue projections of 1.47 billion, 1.8 billion, and 2.28 billion yuan for 2024-2026, reflecting growth rates of 16.8%, 22.1%, and 26.3% respectively [11] - GAC Group's profit forecast for 2024 has been adjusted down to 1.07 billion yuan due to higher-than-expected investment in partnerships, while maintaining a "buy" rating for 2025 and 2026 [12] - Chuangye Heima is leveraging AI to enhance operational efficiency, with adjusted profit forecasts indicating a potential for future growth despite current losses [13] - Jinlong Automobile is projected to achieve significant revenue growth, with profit forecasts of 180 million, 440 million, and 640 million yuan for 2024-2026, maintaining a "buy" rating [14]