建筑装饰行业周观点：财政扩张趋势明确，建筑行业受益逐步显现

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Viewpoints - The construction industry is expected to benefit from a clear trend of fiscal expansion, with infrastructure investment and physical workload anticipated to accelerate in 2025 [2][3] - The construction PMI rose to 53.2% in December 2024, indicating a recovery in the industry, driven by increased special bond usage and improved project funding [3][4] - The report highlights investment opportunities in leading state-owned enterprises in the construction sector, particularly those with high dividend yields and low valuations [4][9] Summary by Sections Important Events Tracking - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a significant increase in the scale of special bonds for 2025, aimed at supporting new infrastructure projects [19] - The Ministry of Finance indicated a substantial increase in the deficit scale for 2025, suggesting a more proactive fiscal policy [19] Market Performance Tracking - The construction engineering sector (SW) experienced a decline of 2.55% from January 6 to January 10, 2025, underperforming the overall A-share index [21][22] - Specific sub-sectors such as housing construction and water conservancy also reported declines, with housing construction down by 4.35% [22] Industry Data Tracking - As of January 10, 2025, the SW construction decoration sector's PE (TTM) was 8.97, and the PB was 0.70, indicating low historical valuation levels [24] - The total investment in fixed assets reached 465,839 billion yuan in the first eleven months of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.3% [32] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes that debt reduction efforts are likely to improve the operational quality of state-owned construction enterprises, potentially leading to a rebound in earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [7] - The "Belt and Road" initiative is expected to accelerate, benefiting international engineering companies, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East [8] - High dividend-paying state-owned construction enterprises are recommended for investment due to their stable returns and low valuations [9]