公用事业行业深度跟踪：火电陆续破净，评估煤价与利润稳定性

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The recent decline in thermal power stocks has led to an increase in companies trading below net asset value, highlighting the importance of assessing coal prices and profit stability [6][15] - The low interest rate environment enhances the valuation of hydropower, emphasizing its low volatility and absolute return value [6][22] - The ongoing electricity reform policies are advancing, with multiple provinces completing the third round of time-of-use electricity pricing reforms [6][31] Summary by Sections Section 1: Thermal Power and Profit Stability - The thermal power index has dropped by 9.2% over the past 15 days, with several companies experiencing declines of over 10% [15] - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio for the GF thermal power index is 0.94, the lowest in the past year, indicating potential valuation recovery [15][16] - A sensitivity analysis indicates that a 3 cent drop in electricity prices would require a reduction of approximately 156 CNY/ton in spot coal prices to maintain profit stability [18][19] Section 2: Hydropower Valuation - Longjiang Power's dividend yield is currently around 3.3%, with expectations for strong performance in 2025 due to increased generation and reduced costs [6][22] - The decline in long-term interest rates has led to a significant increase in the spread between Longjiang Power's yield and the ten-year government bond yield, enhancing its valuation [23][24] Section 3: Electricity Reform Policies - The third round of time-of-use pricing reforms is being implemented across various provinces, with adjustments to peak and valley pricing to reflect the impact of solar power generation [31][32] - New policies are being introduced to optimize the electricity system's adjustment capabilities and promote the integration of renewable energy sources [34][35] Section 4: Industry Data Tracking - Recent data shows that domestic coal prices have stabilized, with the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at approximately 800 CNY/ton as of December 2024 [38][40] - The coastal power plants are experiencing a decrease in load compared to the previous month, while year-on-year comparisons show an increase [38]