Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a phase of tightening liquidity, with long-term interest rates approaching their bottom [1][16] - The central bank has temporarily suspended the purchase of government bonds in the open market, indicating a shift in monetary policy [16] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor upcoming financial data and GDP growth for December and 2024 [23][24] Summary by Sections 1. Liquidity and Interest Rates - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 260 billion CNY through reverse repos, leading to a tightening of liquidity [16] - The expected net issuance of government bonds for the next period is approximately 3719.03 billion CNY, indicating a slight increase from the current period [16] 2. Central Bank Dynamics and Market Rates - The report notes an increase in funding rates across various terms, with DR001, DR007, DR014, DR021, and DR1M showing increases of 5.7bp to 6.8bp [17] - The average issuance rate for NCDs decreased by 7bp to 1.60%, while the yields for various maturities increased [18] 3. Bank Financing Tracking - The total issuance of interbank certificates of deposit (NCD) was 449 billion CNY, with a net financing scale of 65.2 billion CNY [21] - The report indicates that there were no new issuances of commercial bank bonds during the period, with a total outstanding scale of 31.2 trillion CNY [22]
银行资负跟踪:阶段性流动性偏紧,长端利率接近底部
GF SECURITIES·2025-01-14 03:04