TENCENT(00700) 光大证券·2025-01-14 03:12Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 430 HKD [1][4] Core Views - The 2025 WeChat Open Class PRO event highlighted the potential for further monetization within the WeChat ecosystem, particularly through the integration of mini-programs, WeChat Stores, and service accounts [1] - WeChat Stores have shown rapid growth, with GMV in 2024 reaching 1.92 times that of 2023, and order volume increasing by 2.25 times [1] - WeChat mini-games continue to grow rapidly, with monthly active users (MAU) reaching 500 million and daily active users (DAU) hitting 100 million, a 10% year-over-year increase [1] - Video accounts have seen significant growth, with live streaming sessions by quality content creators increasing by 100% and their income rising by 110% in 2024 [1] - WeChat's AI capabilities, including the newly launched WeChat Cloud AI Code Assistant, are expected to lower the development threshold for mini-programs and support global and intelligent transformation for enterprises [1] WeChat Store Growth - WeChat Stores have expanded comprehensively, helping merchants transition from single-channel to omnichannel operations, thereby enhancing the operability of WeChat e-commerce and broadening user reach [1] - The integration of WeChat Stores with mini-programs and public accounts has improved multi-scene marketing efficiency, with the "gift-giving" feature expected to drive new e-commerce growth by leveraging WeChat's social attributes [1] Mini-Games Performance - Mini-games have demonstrated strong performance, with over 900 games monetizing through IAA (In-App Advertising) and contributing over 1 million in revenue, with the overall market size expected to double in the next three years [1] - IAP (In-App Purchase) mini-games have benefited from improved infrastructure, with notable performance in MMO, SLG, and tower defense genres [1] - Cross-platform mini-games have shown significant growth in PC gaming duration, payment rates, and ARPU [1] Video Accounts and AI - Video accounts have become a new showcase space for mini-games, with short video views increasing by 170% [1] - The WeChat Cloud AI Code Assistant has been applied to hundreds of Tencent applications, facilitating efficient mini-program development [1] - Enterprise WeChat has introduced intelligent tools like smart tables, aiding in the digital transformation of manufacturing and supporting global expansion [1] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 6,536.7 billion RMB in 2024E to 7,599.2 billion RMB in 2026E, with a CAGR of 7.3% from 2024E to 2026E [3] - Non-IFRS net profit is expected to increase from 2,255.8 billion RMB in 2024E to 2,761.6 billion RMB in 2026E, with a CAGR of 10.6% over the same period [3] - The stock is currently trading at 15x, 13x, and 12x Non-IFRS PE for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively [1][3]