Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's core OTA (Online Travel Agency) profitability continues to improve, driven by marketing ROI enhancement and operational efficiency [3][4] - The company is expected to achieve sustained profitability improvement through optimized marketing efficiency and operational leverage [5] - The company's international business is growing rapidly, with international ticket sales increasing by over 110% YoY and international accommodation bookings growing by over 130% YoY in Q3 2024 [5] - The company's marketing strategy has been optimized, leading to a reduction in sales and marketing expenses ratio to 29.2% in Q3 2024, down 9.1 percentage points YoY [5] - The company's user acquisition efficiency has improved, with average monthly paying users reaching 46 million in Q3 2024, a 5.0% YoY increase [5] Financial Performance - The company's revenue is projected to grow from RMB 11.896 billion in 2023 to RMB 22.594 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 23.8% [5] - Adjusted net profit is expected to increase from RMB 2.199 billion in 2023 to RMB 3.866 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 20.7% [5] - Gross margin is forecasted to improve from 64.2% in 2024E to 66.8% in 2026E [5] - Adjusted operating margin is expected to rise from 16.0% in 2024E to 17.1% in 2026E [5] Industry Trends - The tourism industry experienced strong growth during the 2024 National Day holiday, with travel numbers reaching 800 million, a 6% YoY increase [5] - The 2025 Spring Festival travel season is expected to see robust demand, with average ticket prices rising to RMB 810, and international ticket prices reaching nearly RMB 4,000, a 20% increase compared to usual periods [5] - The company has enhanced its outbound service capabilities, particularly in Asia, by strengthening partnerships with international OTAs, hotels, and airlines [5] User Metrics - The company's 12-month ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) reached RMB 70 in Q3 2024, a 53% YoY increase [5] - The company's Black Whale membership program has surpassed 78 million members, with ARPU 2.7 times higher than regular members [5] - The company's 15-day cross-selling rate improved to 12% in Q3 2024, up 2 percentage points YoY [5]
同程旅行：核心OTA利润率持续改善