安踏体育：全力迎接2025

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of 78.1 HKD [6] Core Views - Anta Sports' Q4 2024 performance shows strong growth, with Anta brand recording high single-digit growth in both Q4 and full-year sales [1] - FILA brand sees a significant recovery in Q4 2024 with high single-digit growth, while full-year sales grow at a mid-single-digit rate [1] - Other brands experience a 50-55% year-on-year growth in Q4 2024 and a 40-45% growth for the full year [1] - Anta Group's total transaction volume during Double 11 exceeds 11.1 billion RMB, with Anta, FILA, and Descente ranking in the top 10 for sports footwear and apparel on Tmall, and Kolon entering the top 5 for outdoor footwear and apparel [2] - The "Super Anta" initiative shows significant results, with 45 stores opened in 2024 and plans to open 160 stores in 2025, achieving store efficiency three times that of regular stores [3] - Over 80% of Anta and Anta Kids stores in China have adopted the DTC model by H1 2024 [3] - The company's hybrid operating model effectively leverages the strengths and positioning of different brands, with wholesale and DTC models driving sales through distributors and franchisees, while direct retail models enhance sensitivity to consumer demand changes [3] - Anta Sports is steadily advancing its global strategy, with successful direct retail operations in key overseas markets and plans to expand in Southeast Asia, North America, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa [4] - The company's global strategy is based on deep market insights, tailoring operations to local consumer habits and preferences [4] Financial Projections - Anta Sports' revenue is projected to be 70.1 billion RMB in 2024, 78.5 billion RMB in 2025, and 86.8 billion RMB in 2026 [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 13.4 billion RMB in 2024 (including one-time gains), 13.2 billion RMB in 2025, and 14.6 billion RMB in 2026 [5] - EPS is forecasted at 4.7 RMB/share in 2024 and 2025, and 5.2 RMB/share in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17x, 17x, and 15x [5] Market Performance - Anta Sports' stock price has shown a significant upward trend, outperforming the Hang Seng Index with a 36% increase from January 2024 to September 2024 [8]