ANTA SPORTS(02020) 交银国际证券·2025-01-14 03:16Investment Rating - The report assigns a Buy rating to Anta Sports (2020 HK) with a target price of HKD 104.28, implying a potential upside of 33.5% from the current price of HKD 78.10 [1][13] Core Views - Anta Sports' multi-brand strategy continues to receive positive market feedback, with the company maintaining a strong outlook for long-term growth [13] - The report slightly lowers the financial forecasts for 2024-2026 due to uncertainties in the consumer environment, adjusting the target price to HKD 104.28, based on 22x 2025 P/E [13] Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 53,651 million in 2022 to RMB 80,152 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 9.5% [3] - Net profit is projected to increase from RMB 7,590 million in 2022 to RMB 14,778 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 18.1% [3] - EPS is forecasted to grow from RMB 2.73 in 2022 to RMB 4.94 in 2026, with a CAGR of 16.1% [3] - The company maintains a strong balance sheet with net cash positions from 2024 to 2026 [6] Operational Highlights - In Q4 2024, Anta brand retail sales grew by high single digits, FILA by high single digits, and other brands by 50-55% [13] - For the full year 2024, Anta brand/FILA/other brands retail sales grew by high single digits/mid single digits/40-45%, respectively [13] - Anta brand's offline retail discount remained stable at 72%, while online discounts improved by 1 percentage point year-on-year [13] - FILA brand's discount rate remained stable at 74-75%, with growth in its mainline, kids, and fashion segments [13] - Other brands, including Kolon and Descente, exceeded expectations with combined sales exceeding RMB 10 billion, growing by 60-65% and 45-50%, respectively [13] Strategic Initiatives - Anta is actively expanding its overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, and plans to enter the Middle East in 2025, with a potential direct store opening in Los Angeles [13] - The company is focusing on creating popular products, such as the PG7 running shoes (with sales reaching millions) and the Storm Armor jacket, to prepare for the upcoming sales season [13] - Anta is leveraging major sporting events like the Asian Winter Olympics, Milan Winter Olympics, and Los Angeles Olympics to enhance its international brand exposure and recognition [13] Valuation Metrics - The stock is trading at a forward P/E of 16.8x for 2024, 16.5x for 2025, and 14.9x for 2026 [3] - The P/B ratio is expected to decline from 3.86x in 2023 to 2.77x in 2026 [3] - The dividend yield is projected to increase from 2.5% in 2023 to 3.5% in 2026 [3]