WENS FOODSTUFF GROUP CO.(300498) 太平洋·2025-01-14 04:08Investment Rating - Buy/Upgrade rating for Wens Foodstuff Group Co Ltd (300498) with a target price of 15 69 [1] Core Views - Rapid growth in hog slaughtering and continuous cost reduction are key drivers for the company [1] - The company achieved its sales target for hog farming in 2024 with 30 18 million hogs slaughtered a 15% YoY increase [5] - The average selling price of hogs in 2024 was 16 71 yuan/kg a 12 83% YoY increase [5] - The company aims to sell 33-35 million hogs in 2025 with a target average cost of 6 5 yuan/jin [5] - The broiler business also showed steady growth with 1 208 billion broilers sold in 2024 a 2 1% YoY increase [6] - The company expects broiler sales to increase by 5% or more in 2025 with further cost optimization [6] Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve over 100 billion yuan in revenue in 2024 with a net profit of 9-9 5 billion yuan [4] - The estimated net profit for Q4 2024 is between 2 6-3 1 billion yuan [4] - The company's hog farming cost in 2024 was approximately 7 2 yuan/jin a reduction of 1 2 yuan/jin YoY [5] - The estimated profit per hog in 2024 was 282 yuan with Q4 profit per hog at 335 yuan [5] - The broiler business achieved a cost reduction to 6 yuan/jin in 2024 with Q4 cost at 5 7 yuan/jin [6] - The estimated profit per broiler in 2024 was 1 74 yuan with Q4 profit per broiler at 2 4 yuan [6] Market Data - The company's total market capitalization is 104 4 billion yuan with a circulating market cap of 82 13 billion yuan [3] - The 12-month high and low stock prices were 23 9 yuan and 15 12 yuan respectively [3] - The company's total shares outstanding are 6 654 billion with 5 235 billion shares in circulation [3] Future Projections - The company's projected net profit for 2024-2026 is 9 647 billion yuan 9 118 billion yuan and 6 762 billion yuan respectively [6] - The current PE ratio for 2025 is 11 45x [6] - The company's revenue growth rate is expected to be 18 47% in 2024 4 69% in 2025 and 3 09% in 2026 [7] - The net profit growth rate is projected to be -250 99% in 2024 -5 48% in 2025 and -25 84% in 2026 [7] Financial Metrics - The company's gross margin is expected to be 15 97% in 2024 14 66% in 2025 and 11 93% in 2026 [11] - The net profit margin is projected to be 9 06% in 2024 8 18% in 2025 and 5 88% in 2026 [11] - The ROE is expected to be 23 55% in 2024 17 93% in 2025 and 11 40% in 2026 [11] - The ROA is projected to be 10 13% in 2024 8 55% in 2025 and 5 88% in 2026 [11]