温氏股份：生猪出栏快速增长，成本持续下降

Investment Rating - Buy/Upgrade rating for Wens Foodstuff Group (300498) with a target price of 15.69 [1] Core Views - Rapid growth in hog production and continuous cost reduction are key drivers for the company [1] - The company achieved its sales target for hog farming in 2024, with 30.18 million hogs sold, a 15% YoY increase [5] - The average selling price of hogs in 2024 was 16.71 RMB/kg, up 12.83% YoY [5] - The company's comprehensive hog farming cost in 2024 was approximately 7.2 RMB/jin, down 1.2 RMB/jin YoY [5] - The company set a sales target of 33-35 million hogs for 2025, aiming for an average farming cost of 6.5 RMB/jin [5] - The broiler business also showed steady growth, with 1.208 billion broilers sold in 2024, a 2.1% YoY increase [6] - The company aims to increase broiler sales by 5% or more in 2025, with further cost optimization expected [6] Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve over 100 billion RMB in revenue in 2024, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 9-9.5 billion RMB, a significant turnaround from losses [4] - Estimated net profit for 2024-2026 is 9.647 billion RMB, 9.118 billion RMB, and 6.762 billion RMB, respectively [6] - The current PE ratio for 2025 is 11.45x [6] Operational Highlights - In Q4 2024, the company sold 8.62 million hogs, an 8.6% YoY increase, with an average selling price of 16.75 RMB/kg, up 16.18% YoY but down 14.04% QoQ [5] - The comprehensive hog farming cost in Q4 2024 was 6.7 RMB/jin, down 0.2 RMB/jin QoQ [5] - The estimated profit per hog in 2024 was 282 RMB, with Q4 profit per hog at 335 RMB [5] - The broiler business achieved a cost reduction to 6 RMB/jin in 2024, down 0.8 RMB/jin YoY, with Q4 costs further reduced to 5.7 RMB/jin [6] - Estimated profit per broiler in 2024 was 1.74 RMB, with Q4 profit per broiler at 2.4 RMB [6] Market Data - Total shares outstanding: 6.654 billion, with 5.235 billion shares in circulation [3] - Total market capitalization: 104.4 billion RMB, with a circulating market cap of 82.13 billion RMB [3] - The stock's 12-month high/low prices were 23.9 RMB and 15.12 RMB, respectively [3]