12月美国非农数据点评：非农远超预期，支撑市场削减降息押注

Employment Data - In December, the U.S. added 256,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 165,000 jobs[12] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly decreased to 4.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value and below the expected 4.2%[13] - The labor force participation rate remained stable at 62.5%[14] Sector Contributions - Major contributions to job growth came from retail, leisure and hospitality, service production, financial activities, government, and education and healthcare sectors, while manufacturing jobs declined[20] - Service sector jobs increased by 137,000, with government employment rising by 3,000 to 333,000[20] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings in December showed a year-over-year increase of 3.9% and a month-over-month increase of 0.3%, both slightly lower than previous values[14] Market Reactions - Following the strong non-farm data release, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in early 2025 were further reduced, with the probability of no rate cut rising to 93.6%[27] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.6% to 109.6, while 1-year and 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.25% and 4.77%, respectively[28] - Major U.S. stock indices fell by over 1.5% following the data release[28] Future Considerations - Attention is advised on the implications of immigration policies, tariff implementations, and federal workforce reductions post-Trump's inauguration on January 20[24] - The upcoming annual revisions of non-farm data will be crucial for assessing the labor market's resilience[12]