房地产行业周报：25年开年前两周新房销售环比下滑，二手房市场新政余热仍在

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry in China [4]. Core Insights - New home sales in the first two weeks of 2025 have shown a continuous month-on-month decline, returning to levels seen before recent policy changes, while the second-hand housing market continues to benefit from policy effects [7][43]. - The report highlights that the effectiveness of policies implemented since September 24 has been strong, with both new and second-hand home sales remaining at high levels for three consecutive months [43]. - It is anticipated that the policy effects may extend into early 2025, but a decline in sales is expected during January and February due to the Spring Festival [43]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the second week of 2025, the real estate sector index underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a relative return of -1.6% [10]. - The real estate index closed at 1999.59, reflecting a weekly decline of 2.7% [11]. Sales Data - New home sales in 44 major cities dropped to 19,500 units, a decrease of 35.5% from the previous week, while second-hand home sales in 21 cities increased by 14.8% to 21,400 units [14]. - The inventory in 18 major cities decreased to 865,000 units, with a sales-to-inventory ratio of 15.1 months, down by 0.2 months from the previous week [22]. Policy Developments - Local policies have been implemented to stimulate the market, such as reducing the minimum down payment for housing provident funds in Jinan from 30% to 20% [12]. - Various regions are taking measures to promote real estate sales, including encouraging ongoing construction during the Spring Festival and addressing housing certification issues [12][17]. Company Announcements - Several companies have made significant announcements, including financial support extensions and guarantees for subsidiaries, indicating ongoing corporate activity in the sector [40][41]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares in Poly Developments (600048), China Merchants Shekou (001979), and increasing holdings in Gemdale Corporation (600383) [43]. - It also suggests monitoring companies like China Resources Land (01109) and Yuexiu Property (00123) for potential investment opportunities [43].