2024Q4医药行业业绩前瞻：创新、复苏

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The recovery trend in the pharmaceutical industry continues under a combination of policies, suggesting a strategy of "steady progress with offensive actions" [1] - The pharmaceutical manufacturing industry's revenue and total profit for January to November 2024 show a year-on-year growth of 0.0% and a decline of 2.7%, respectively, with a monthly trend indicating stability and gradual improvement [1] - The report emphasizes the need for innovation and structural adjustments within the industry to meet challenges, recommending focus on sectors with good competitive landscapes and those with innovative potential [1] Summary by Sections Innovative Drugs - The payment and access for innovative drugs are improving, with significant growth potential and strong certainty [2] - The commercial insurance development is expected to alleviate payment issues for innovative drugs, enhancing profitability for leading companies in this sector [2] Traditional Chinese Medicine - The net profit growth rate for Q4 2024 is expected to improve compared to Q3 2024, primarily due to a low base effect, while revenue growth and gross margins remain under pressure [2] Raw Materials and Generic Drugs - The raw materials sector is in a recovery phase, with some companies entering a replenishment stage, leading to an expected increase in ROE [3] - The report anticipates that the impact of the tenth batch of drug procurement will reach a bottom, with growth driven by innovative drugs and new formulations [3] CXO Sector - The CXO sector is expected to see improvements in operations and revenue, with a positive outlook for growth driven by new business opportunities [4] Upstream Scientific Services - The sector is benefiting from policy support for domestic alternatives, with expected revenue and profitability recovery in Q4 2024 and 2025 [4] Pharmaceutical Distribution - The distribution sector is experiencing stable operations with new collaborations opening up growth opportunities, indicating a shift in market perception regarding growth potential [6] Medical Devices - The medical device sector is seeing a steady recovery in bidding processes, with expectations for performance turning positive due to policy adjustments and innovation [7] In Vitro Diagnostics (IVD) - The IVD sector is witnessing accelerated domestic substitution, with local companies gaining market share against foreign competitors [8] Chain Pharmacies - The industry is expected to continue its consolidation, with leading pharmacies likely to maintain growth due to improved management capabilities [9]