东方战略周观察：关税风险动摇加拿大自由党执政地位

Group 1: Political Dynamics in Canada - Trudeau announced his resignation on January 6, 2025, amid declining support and pressure from U.S. tariffs[1] - The Liberal Party's support rate is at 20.1%, significantly trailing the Conservative Party at 44.2%[17] - Nine ministers have resigned or announced they will not run in the next federal election since July 2024, indicating internal dissent[1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The U.S. has threatened a 25% tariff on all products from Canada and Mexico, impacting Canada's economy heavily reliant on oil and automotive exports[1] - Key Liberal Party members oppose Trudeau's tariff response, advocating for reduced fiscal spending to combat inflation and deficits[1] Group 3: Leadership Transition - Potential candidates for the Liberal Party leadership include Chrystia Freeland, Mark Carney, and Anita Anand, each with distinct policy positions[24] - The Liberal Party is expected to select a new leader before the parliamentary session resumes on March 24, 2025[24] Group 4: Future Challenges - The Liberal Party's coalition with the New Democratic Party is strained, complicating their ability to maintain power[25] - A no-confidence motion from the Conservative Party could trigger a new federal election if the Liberal Party fails to secure support[25]