周度经济观察：经济波澜不惊，市场起伏加剧

Demand and Inflation - December 2024 PPI decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and was down 2.3% year-on-year, indicating persistent demand insufficiency[4] - December CPI rose by 0.1% year-on-year, with core CPI at 0.4%, showing marginal improvement but still reflecting weak demand overall[4] Export and Import Trends - December exports in USD terms increased by 10.7% year-on-year, a significant rebound of 4 percentage points from November, driven by global PMI recovery and "rush to export" behavior[7] - December imports in USD terms rose by 1% year-on-year, marking the first increase in six months, influenced by domestic inventory adjustments[7] Real Estate Market Dynamics - Despite improvements in December real estate transactions, stock and bond prices of real estate companies showed significant volatility, highlighting ongoing liquidity pressures[10] - The recovery of real estate companies' liquidity may depend heavily on policy support amid weak demand and declining expectations[10] Market Conditions and Risks - The equity market is currently in a state of fluctuation, with a notable decline in consumer and dividend sectors, while TMT and overseas sectors performed better[11] - The risk of a unilateral market downturn is considered limited due to regulatory focus on market stability, despite potential pressures from exchange rates[12] U.S. Economic Indicators - December 2024 U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 256,000, exceeding market expectations and indicating a resilient labor market[17] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a slight improvement in employment conditions[19] Monetary Policy Outlook - The expectation for U.S. interest rate cuts has diminished, with the next potential cut now anticipated in June 2025 instead of March, maintaining a 25 basis points reduction forecast[20] - The Federal Reserve's focus has shifted from employment metrics to inflation levels, increasing uncertainty regarding future rate cuts[20]