【浙商宏观||李超】持续关注“抢出口”

Export Analysis - December export growth rebounded to 10.9% year-on-year, up from 5.8% in November, with total exports for 2024 reaching 25 trillion RMB, a 7.1% increase compared to 2023[5] - Exports to ASEAN, EU, US, and South Korea grew by 13.4%, 4.3%, 6.1%, and -0.5% respectively, indicating resilience in US exports compared to Europe[5] - The "export rush" phenomenon is expected as tariffs may be implemented quickly, with historical precedents showing significant export spikes before tariff enforcement[5][6] Import Analysis - December imports increased by 1.3% year-on-year, reversing a four-month contraction, primarily due to early holiday consumption effects[9] - Total imports for 2024 grew by 2.3%, slightly down from 2.4% in the previous eleven months[9] - The increase in imports is linked to domestic demand recovery, supported by recent policy measures aimed at boosting consumption[9] Trade Balance - December trade surplus reached 104.84 billion USD, up from 97.44 billion USD in November, marking a continued high level of surplus[10] - The trade surplus is the highest since June 2024, contributing positively to nominal GDP and alleviating international balance of payments pressures[10] Risks and Future Outlook - Potential risks include unexpected deterioration in US-China trade relations and significant declines in overseas demand, which could severely impact exports[11] - The report emphasizes four key advantages supporting non-US exports: cost-effectiveness of Chinese goods, industrial advantages in new energy products, overseas corporate strategies, and supply chain resilience amid global geopolitical tensions[6][7]