国别研究系列:美国篇|国泰君安·全球研究

Consumption Sector - The report reviews the evolution of eight major consumption industries in the U.S., including food and beverage, cosmetics, retail, and automotive, highlighting significant changes over the past century[2] - The U.S. beer industry remains in a high prosperity phase despite being mature, driven by product innovation and structural upgrades, with profit margins improving across cycles[2] - The U.S. grocery sector shows growth opportunities through differentiation, with Dollar General focusing on low-income consumers and optimizing procurement costs[2] Technology Sector - Major U.S. tech giants like Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon are analyzed for their historical evolution, product frameworks, and financial data, indicating robust growth and innovation[5] - The Robotaxi industry in the U.S. is advancing rapidly, with companies like Waymo commercializing operations, suggesting a potential acceleration in development[5] - The inverter market in the U.S. is experiencing fast growth, with increasing penetration rates and a focus on ground-mounted and residential applications[5] Financial Sector - U.S. mutual fund sales fees are declining, driven by a shift towards self-service investment options and the demand for low-cost funds[6] - BlackRock is identified as the largest global asset management firm, primarily focusing on ETFs to meet institutional clients' needs[6] - The U.S. derivatives market is leading globally, with a focus on enhancing institutional returns through advanced trading capabilities[7] Macro Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to experience a "soft landing" with mild re-inflation and high interest rates in 2025, with Treasury yields projected to fluctuate between 3.5% and 4.0%[11] - The report anticipates that the strong dollar will continue, potentially reaching new highs, while the S&P 500 is expected to benefit from economic resilience[11]