国君宏观|宽松预期与汇率平衡

Exchange Rate and Central Bank Policy - The central bank has shifted from "enhancing exchange rate flexibility" to "enhancing exchange rate resilience," indicating a stronger stance against unilateral exchange rate expectations[1] - The central bank uses onshore market forward RMB exchange rate operations to guide market expectations, with the current swap premium fluctuating around 1000 pips[1] - The onshore market swap rate is 3.2% (swap point 0.2314/onshore exchange rate 7.33), providing a hedging benefit for investors[1] Investment Returns and Market Dynamics - Investing in 1-year Chinese bonds yields a comprehensive return of around 4.5%, higher than the 4.25% yield of 1-year US Treasury bonds[1] - The swap premium has reached historically high levels, indicating that the central bank's counter-cyclical adjustments are relatively sufficient[2] - The central bank's recent statement to "pause buying government bonds" is crucial for stabilizing exchange rate expectations[2] Asset Pricing and Market Risks - Equity assets face liquidity challenges due to the reversal of loose expectations and some funds seeking overseas diversification[3] - The bond market favors a duration strategy, with 30-year bonds offering better value compared to 10-year bonds and 1-year interbank certificates of deposit[3] - Risks include potential tariff implementation and unexpected US inflation risks[4]