油运行业专题：俄油制裁大升级，油运再遇布局良机

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [6] Core Viewpoints - The oil shipping industry supply remains rigid, with only 5 new VLCCs expected to be delivered globally by 2025. The recent escalation of US sanctions on Russian oil is projected to significantly reduce effective capacity by 3.7%, while major ports' refusal to accommodate Russian oil tankers is likely to suppress the conversion of older vessels into shadow tankers, thereby stimulating the scrapping of older ships [1][4][8]. Summary by Sections Recent Developments - The recent week saw an escalation in US and European sanctions against Russian oil, including the blacklisting of China COSCO Shipping Group and the refusal of Shandong ports to allow Russian oil tankers to dock [2][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The sanctions are expected to lead to a considerable exit of capacity, with older ships likely to be scrapped more quickly. The sanctions will directly remove capacity from the compliant supply, particularly affecting smaller vessels. The sanctions on various tanker types (VLCC, Suezmax, Aframax, etc.) account for a total of 3.7% of global capacity [4][5][24]. - The demand in the compliant market is expected to surge in the short term, with countries like China and India likely to shift their imports from Russian oil to Middle Eastern and US Gulf sources. In the medium term, if oil prices continue to rise, OPEC+ may increase production, as they have lost significant market share due to previous production cuts [4][8]. Future Projections - If the shadow fleet remains unchanged, the supply-demand gap is projected to widen from 1.6% to between 3.7% and 7.5% by 2025. In the most optimistic scenario, if all shadow vessels are sanctioned, the gap could expand to between 11.1% and 18.6% [24][25]. - The current structure of Russian oil trade indicates that in 2024, Russian oil maritime exports are expected to be 3.46 million barrels per day, with 82% transported via shadow tankers [24][26]. Investment Recommendations - The report continues to favor the upward trend in oil shipping cycles, recommending companies such as COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and China Merchants Jinling [8].