石油石化行业石化运输仓储周报：油运景气提升，关注制裁后续影响

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7][63]. Core Viewpoints - The oil transportation market is experiencing a rebound in demand for long-haul oil tankers, with VLCC and LR vessel rates strengthening. The VLCC market saw an increase in rates after the New Year holiday, particularly in the Atlantic route, while the Suezmax and Aframax rates showed mixed trends [8][11]. - The report highlights the impact of U.S. sanctions on oil imports from countries like Iran and Russia, particularly affecting independent refineries in Shandong, which accounted for 1.74 million barrels per day of crude oil imports in 2024, representing 17% of China's total imports [8][11]. - The report recommends focusing on compliant tanker companies such as COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy, as well as major oil companies like PetroChina, CNOOC, and Sinopec, due to the ongoing restructuring of the oil and gas supply chain [8][11]. Summary by Sections Oil Transportation Market - In the second week of 2025, the BDTI composite index averaged 814 points, down 3.9% month-on-month and down 44% year-on-year. VLCC TCE averaged $25,648/day, up 5.9% month-on-month but down 44.6% year-on-year [11][20]. - Specific routes for VLCC showed varied performance, with the Middle East to China route averaging $23,143/day, up 7.6% month-on-month but down 44.4% year-on-year [11][20]. LNG Transportation Market - In the second week of 2025, spot rates for LNG vessels were reported at $23,000/day for 174,000 cubic meter vessels, $14,500/day for 160,000 cubic meter vessels, and $5,500/day for 145,000 cubic meter vessels, all unchanged month-on-month but down significantly year-on-year [37][42]. - The report notes a decline in LNG prices in China, Australia, and the U.S., with China's LNG market price at 4,332 RMB/ton, down 0.8% month-on-month and down 16.5% year-on-year [42][49]. Demand Side - As of January 10, 2025, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were $78.3 and $74.3 per barrel, respectively, with Brent futures-spot price spread at -$0.83 per barrel [20][21]. - China's crude oil imports in November 2024 reached 48.52 million tons, up 8.5% month-on-month and up 14.3% year-on-year [22][23]. Supply Side - As of December 2024, the total oil tanker fleet size was 669 million deadweight tons, up 0.6% year-on-year, with VLCC fleet size remaining stable [30][31]. - The LNG fleet size reached 120.1 million cubic meters by November 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [49][50].