12月外贸数据点评：出口成绩单表现亮眼，对美出口回升明显

Export Performance - In December 2024, China's exports increased by 10.7% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 7.1% and the previous value of 6.7%[11] - The month-on-month export growth for December was 7.6%, significantly higher than the seasonal average of 5.6% from 2013 to 2023[11] - The overall export growth rate for 2024 is projected at 5.9%, a notable recovery from the previous year's decline of -4.7%[11] Country-Specific Trends - Exports to countries excluding Japan and India showed a general recovery, with significant increases to Africa (24.8%), the US (15.6%), and Latin America (16.9%)[16] - Exports to the US improved due to inventory replenishment driven by a recovery in US manufacturing, with a month-on-month growth of 3.2% in December[19] - Exports to Japan turned negative at -4.2%, a decline of 10.6 percentage points from the previous value[16] Commodity Insights - The automotive sector saw a remarkable increase, with exports of vehicles (including chassis) and parts rising by 12.1% and 15.6%, respectively, with volume growth up by 24.8%[27] - Steel exports continued to show resilience, with a growth rate of 8.5%, attributed to potential anti-dumping investigations in Southeast Asia[27] - Exports of aluminum products fell sharply by 32.9% due to the cancellation of export tax rebates, leading to a slowdown in previous "export rush" activities[31] Import Trends - December imports rose to a growth rate of 1.0%, surpassing expectations of -1.0% and the previous decline of -3.9%[41] - The overall import growth for 2024 is expected to be around 1.1%, indicating a recovery in domestic demand[41] - Significant increases in imports were noted from the US (2.6%), South Korea (19.7%), and Japan (6.3%) in December[41]