煤炭开采：供给边际约束，需求开始拉动，春季行情可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal mining industry [2][5]. Core Viewpoints - Domestic policies are positive, and downstream demand is expected to improve, with significant economic support measures announced in recent political meetings [5]. - The coal and steel sectors are seeing profit recovery driven by supply constraints and demand expectations, with policies supporting real estate and infrastructure investment [5]. - The copper market is experiencing a price recovery due to improved demand expectations and inflation trading, with recent price adjustments indicating a positive market sentiment [5]. - The aluminum sector is facing a supply ceiling effect, with demand expected to improve in 2025, particularly from the real estate and new energy vehicle sectors [5]. Summary by Sections Coal and Steel - Supply constraints are driving profit recovery, and demand is expected to increase due to effective policy implementation in real estate and infrastructure [5]. - The steel industry is seeing marginal improvements in profitability due to production control policies, with expectations for further enhancements in 2025 [5]. Copper - The copper price has shown an upward trend, with a recent reference price of 75,690 RMB/ton, reflecting a 0.28% increase from the previous day and a 1.38% increase from the same month last year [5]. - Economic recovery indicators, such as better-than-expected CPI data, are boosting market confidence [5]. Aluminum - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in China is approximately 45.1 million tons, nearing the estimated ceiling of 45 million tons, with limited new capacity expected in 2025 [5]. - Demand from the real estate sector is projected to improve in 2025 due to a low base effect [5]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks in copper include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and others [5]. - Recommended stocks in aluminum include Yunnan Aluminum and others [5]. - Recommendations for coking coal and coke include various companies, indicating a diversified investment approach [5].