新能源电力行业周报：上游行业自律初见成效，2024年风电新增装机规模有望高增

Industry Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Standard Allocation" rating to the industry [1] Core Views - The photovoltaic (PV) sector shows signs of upstream industry self-discipline, with weak demand during the off-season leading to declining module prices [3][4] - The wind power sector is expected to see a significant increase in new installations in 2024, with a focus on offshore wind construction progress in 2025 [6][8] Photovoltaic Sector - Silicon Material: Prices have risen due to industry self-discipline and production cuts. In December 2024, China's polysilicon production was 103,800 tons, a 22.10% month-on-month decrease. January 2025 output is expected to be around 98,000 tons, a 5% decrease from December [4][17] - Silicon Wafers: Prices have increased due to supply shortages, especially for G10L and G12 series wafers. January 2025 production is expected to remain at 46GW [4][18] - Battery Cells: Prices have risen due to increased silicon wafer prices. Inventory levels are healthy, with leading manufacturers holding low stock [4][18] - Modules: Prices have declined due to weak market demand. Production is expected to decrease further in January 2025 [4][19] - Key Company to Watch: Flat Glass Group (福莱特) benefits from cost advantages due to scale, self-supply of quartz sand, and overseas capacity layout [5][20] Wind Power Sector - Onshore Wind: As of January 10, 2025, onshore wind turbine bidding was approximately 721.1MW, with an average winning bid price of 1,297 yuan/kW without towers. The price war for wind turbines has largely ended, with prices stabilizing [6][21] - Offshore Wind: In 2024, onshore wind turbine bidding reached 165.88GW, and offshore wind turbine bidding reached 12.05GW. The National Energy Bureau reported 51.75GW of new wind power installations from January to November 2024. The "China Wind Energy Spring Tea Party" in January 2025 indicated that new grid-connected wind power installations in 2024 were approximately 88GW, with 2025 expected to reach 105-115GW [6][21] - Key Companies to Watch: - Dajin Heavy Industry (大金重工) is a leader in offshore equipment, with stable overseas revenue and plans to expand its global market share [8][25] - Orient Cable (东方电缆) is a leading submarine cable manufacturer with advanced technology and extensive project delivery experience [8][25] Market Performance - The PV equipment sector fell by 2.60% during the week of January 6-10, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 by 1.47 percentage points. The wind power equipment sector rose by 0.59%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 1.72 percentage points [3][29] - Top gainers in the PV sector were Tongling股份, ST中利, and Shangneng Electric. Top gainers in the wind power sector were Hope Electric, Zhenjiang股份, and Orient Cable [3][29] Industry Data Tracking - PV Industry Prices: - Silicon material prices rose, with polysilicon dense material averaging 40 yuan/kg, up 12.68% week-on-week [72] - Silicon wafer prices remained stable, with G12 wafers at 1.63 yuan/piece and M10 wafers at 1.08 yuan/piece [72] - Battery cell prices increased, with PERC 182mm cells at 0.3 yuan/W, up 9.09% week-on-week [72] - Module prices declined, with double-sided PERC 182mm modules at 0.65 yuan/W, down 4.41% week-on-week [72] - Wind Power Industry Prices: - Epoxy resin prices were 13,866.67 yuan/ton, down 1.42% week-on-week [82] - Medium and heavy plate prices were 3,262 yuan/ton, down 2.97% week-on-week [82] - Copper prices were 75,443.33 yuan/ton, up 2.97% week-on-week [82]