Group 1: U.S. Treasury Yield Trends - U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has increased by over 100 basis points since the Fed's rate cut in September 2024, reaching a high of 4.79%[2] - The current fair value for the 10-year Treasury yield is estimated at around 4.4%, with expectations for 2025 to range between 4% and 4.5%[3] - The yield increase is attributed to a combination of short-term economic resilience and long-term fiscal concerns, particularly related to Trump's policies[2][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy shows strong resilience, with employment data indicating a robust job market and improved hiring intentions[4] - Inflation pressures are re-emerging, particularly in the services sector, with rental inflation showing limited downward potential[4][49] - Economic surprise indices suggest a potential weakening in the economic fundamentals since November 2024, indicating that current yield levels may overestimate future growth[49] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The U.S. national debt reached 624.2 billion, significantly higher than previous years, with a projected deficit of $1.88 trillion for the fiscal year[52][59] - Demand for long-term Treasuries is weakening as institutional investors show reduced appetite amid rising uncertainty and yield increases[70]
美债利率“三重门”：经济韧性、供给压力与政策预期
交银国际·2025-01-15 02:10