银行业“量价质”跟踪（八）：化债与地产政策积极效果体现，金融数据继续改善

Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "标配" (Standard Allocation) [1] Core Views - The social financing (社融) and M2 data for December 2024 continued to improve since October, reflecting the positive effects of debt resolution and real estate support policies [6] - Government bond issuance further strengthened, household loans continued to improve, while corporate medium and long-term loans remained weak, with strong performance in bill and bond financing [6] - The fiscal-driven and real estate market pressure relief are expected to support further upward recovery in social financing and M2 [6] - The fiscal front-loading may lead to a pattern of low social financing at the beginning and end of the year, with a high in the middle [6] - The deposit cycle has the potential for further improvement under the influence of positive consumption and real estate policies, which will have a positive impact on M1 [6] Key Data and Trends - Social financing RMB loans increased by approximately 840 billion yuan, with corporate loans adding 490 billion yuan, significantly lower than the same period last year [6] - Household loans increased by 350 billion yuan, continuing the improvement trend since October [6] - Government bonds reached a new high with an addition of 1.76 trillion yuan in December, significantly contributing to social financing [6] - Non-financial corporate deposits increased by 1.81 trillion yuan, driving further improvement in M1 growth [6] - Non-bank deposits decreased by 3.17 trillion yuan due to the impact of self-regulatory organizations' pricing management on interbank deposits [6] Investment Focus - Attention should be paid to the investment mainline of stable dividends and recovery potential [6] - The bank sector's dividend yield advantage has reappeared as treasury bond yields have significantly declined since December 2024 [6] - The high-dividend trend may cool down after a rapid rise, but the macro policy space still holds potential for imagination [6] - The recovery logic is dominant, and it is recommended to increase attention to small and medium-sized banks [6] Related Research - The report references several related studies on the banking industry, including the effects of policy, deposit and loan interest rate reductions, and asset quality concerns [3][4]