2025年商贸零售行业投资策略：消费拾级而上，关注零售边际反转

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [7]. Core Insights - The retail sector is expected to experience a recovery in consumer confidence and spending, driven by government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption [3][14]. - The retail industry showed a V-shaped recovery in 2024, with total retail sales reaching 44.27 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [15]. - The report highlights four main investment themes: traditional supermarkets undergoing transformation, undervalued stocks with price-to-book ratios below 1, companies aligning with emotional value consumption trends, and high-dividend low-valuation gold and jewelry stocks [4][5][6][10]. Summary by Sections 1. 2024 Review - Retail sales in 2024 demonstrated a V-shaped recovery, with quarterly totals of 12.03 trillion, 11.56 trillion, and 11.76 trillion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 4.7%, 2.6%, and 2.7% respectively [15]. - The retail sector's performance was strong, with a 20.46% increase in the CITIC retail sector index, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.77 percentage points [2][30]. 2. 2025 Outlook - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the importance of boosting consumption, with policies such as consumption vouchers and trade-in incentives expected to enhance consumer confidence [3][14]. - The report anticipates a continued recovery in consumer confidence, supported by a series of consumption-boosting policies [15]. 3. Investment Themes - Theme 1: Focus on traditional supermarkets that are actively transforming their business models to enhance product and service offerings [4]. - Theme 2: Stocks with a price-to-book ratio below 1 are expected to undergo value re-evaluation, particularly those involved in mergers and acquisitions [5]. - Theme 3: Companies that cater to emotional value consumption trends are likely to see growth, as consumers increasingly seek enriching shopping experiences [6]. - Theme 4: The gold and jewelry sector, characterized by low valuations and high dividends, is poised for a potential rebound [10]. 4. Performance Metrics - The report notes that the retail sector's total sales for the first eleven months of 2024 reached 32.47 trillion yuan, with online retail sales contributing significantly to the overall growth [23]. - The report identifies key players in the retail sector, including Yonghui Supermarket and Highsun Retail, which are undergoing significant transformations to improve operational efficiency and profitability [41][43].